Export Sustainability Under Compounding Shocks: Destination Diversification and Competitiveness in Global Wheat Trade

Wheat trade sustainability has become critical amid compounding shocks—pandemic disruptions, extreme weather events, and the Russia–Ukraine war—that exposed vulnerabilities in global food supply systems. This study documents how five major wheat suppliers (Australia, Canada, the United States, Russia, and Ukraine) adjusted destination structures and revealed competitive positions during 2020–2024, and whether these structural configurations coincided with more or less stable export outcomes. Using annual FOB export data from the International Trade Centre, destination concentration is measured through the Herfindahl–Hirschman Index (HHI), revealed competitive positioning is assessed using the symmetric revealed comparative advantage (SRCA) (the symmetric transformation of the Balassa RCA), and outcome stability is summarized with volatility (coefficient of variation) and maximum drawdown computed from annual export values. The United States maintained structural diversification; Canada shifted toward high concentration; Australia preserved moderate dispersion but exhibited pronounced outcome volatility; Ukraine experienced a post-2022 reconfiguration with elevated concentration and large drawdowns, whereas the Russian Federation is reported only up to 2021 due to ITC data availability in the extraction used (thus interpreted as a pre-shock baseline). Overall, export sustainability under shocks is best interpreted as a combination of destination-risk architecture, revealed positioning, and observed stability of outcomes rather than inferred from competitiveness alone.