Índices de vegetación espectral y cadena de Markov para evaluar la pérdida de cobertura forestal en la Reserva Nacional Allpahuayo Mishana, en el período 2002-2021

The present study identifies the pattern of forest cover change in the period 2002-2021, using vegetation indices and Markov Chain in the Alpahuayo Mishana National Reserve, Loreto, Peru, to predict the behavior of land uses to the year 2030. The research was descriptive, with a non-experimental design. To do this, the vegetation index of Landsat 7 Enhanced thematic mapper plus (ETM+) and Landsat 8 Operational land images (OLI) were used to evaluate the loss of forest cover for the years 2002 and 2021. Likewise, the Markov chain allowed to predict forest cover by the year 2030. The forecast results reveal that bare soil, water bodies, dense forest cover, and sparse forest cover will increase by 1%, 2%, 8%, and 89%, respectively, in accordance with Marko v chain statistics. This indicates that the Allpahuayo Mishana National Reserve could experience deforestation and expansion of agricultural activities. Therefore, there is an increased need to integrate participatory approaches, develop activities for the protection and recovery of the Natural Reserves of the Peruvian Amazon based on current environmental legislation and policy. In conclusion, this research generates both methodological and technological contributions in the field of research.