TY - GEN
T1 - Análisis de escenarios aplicado a minería para la toma de decisiones y análisis de riesgos
AU - Salinas-Murga, María Angélica
AU - Arango-Retamozo, Solio Marino
AU - Briceño-Contreras, Sandra Keiko
AU - Castillo-Chung, Aldo Roger
AU - Torres-Rivera, Christian Michell
AU - Arévalo-Aranda, Cesar
AU - Portilla-Rodriguez, Hans Roger
N1 - Publisher Copyright:
© 2022 Latin American and Caribbean Consortium of Engineering Institutions. All rights reserved.
PY - 2022
Y1 - 2022
N2 - The objective of this research was to analyze scenarios through decision making and risk analysis, which was applied in the construction of a cruise ship in the Atlantis project. The methodology that was used is quantitative based on event information, which through a graphical representation facilitated the understanding and interpretation of the decision tree, in addition, statistical methods were applied for risk analysis, it should be noted that in order to obtain data was considered that of other studies. The results obtained from the decision tree were that the first alternative that was proposed had a NPV of $3,970, the second of $3,405 and regarding the risk analysis, the coefficient of variation of the first option is 57% and the second 60%. Therefore, after having made the graphical representation and verified the risk, it is concluded that, for the construction of the cruiser, option 1 has the most viable decision regarding the path traced in the graph, the highest NPV and the lowest risk.
AB - The objective of this research was to analyze scenarios through decision making and risk analysis, which was applied in the construction of a cruise ship in the Atlantis project. The methodology that was used is quantitative based on event information, which through a graphical representation facilitated the understanding and interpretation of the decision tree, in addition, statistical methods were applied for risk analysis, it should be noted that in order to obtain data was considered that of other studies. The results obtained from the decision tree were that the first alternative that was proposed had a NPV of $3,970, the second of $3,405 and regarding the risk analysis, the coefficient of variation of the first option is 57% and the second 60%. Therefore, after having made the graphical representation and verified the risk, it is concluded that, for the construction of the cruiser, option 1 has the most viable decision regarding the path traced in the graph, the highest NPV and the lowest risk.
KW - Decision tree
KW - mining operation
KW - risk
UR - https://www.scopus.com/pages/publications/85150706443
U2 - 10.18687/LEIRD2022.1.1.13
DO - 10.18687/LEIRD2022.1.1.13
M3 - Contribución a la conferencia
AN - SCOPUS:85150706443
T3 - Proceedings of the LACCEI international Multi-conference for Engineering, Education and Technology
BT - Proceedings of the 2nd LACCEI International Multiconference on Entrepreneurship, Innovation and Regional Development
A2 - Larrondo Petrie, Maria M.
A2 - Texier, Jose
A2 - Matta, Rodolfo Andres Rivas
T2 - 2nd LACCEI International Multiconference on Entrepreneurship, Innovation and Regional Development, LEIRD 2022
Y2 - 6 December 2022 through 7 December 2022
ER -